May 18, 2010, 1:38 PM EDT
Teams just do not trade the top pick in the NBA Draft. Doesn’t happen.
It has been 17 years since the NBA’s top overall pick was traded before the draft. The fact is elite talent is just too hard to come by in the NBA, you need elite talent to win big and if you get the chance to draft it you don’t trade it away.
John Wall is an elite talent. In a league where point guard play dominates more and more (because of how the rules are enforced) Wall is going to be a force. In a few years he will be called one of the best point guards in the game. You can build around this guy.
And somebody might trade away his rights.
That’s because a lot of the teams at the top of the lottery food chain are actually set at point guard. They could take somebody else, or they could get a little value for that pick and move down a few spots for someone who really wants Wall.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 19.9 percent chance at the top spot, but they drafted two point guards last year at fifth and sixth overall — Ricky Rubio, the sensation still playing in Europe and will be for at least another year; and Johny Flynn. What is worse, they have committed to run the triangle offense — a system that does not call for a strong point guard. If the T-Wolves win the lottery, they have some serious decisions to make about what kind of team they want to build and who of the three will be their point guard.
The Wolves could decide they don’t need another point guard and trade the pick. Or they could draft Wall and just start stockpiling point guards like food in bomb shelter.
The Sacramento Kings have a 15.6 percent chance of winning the top pick — and they are set at point guard with Tyreke Evans. The guy who just won the Rookie of the Year Award and averaged 20 points and five assists per game. He is going to be an elite point, and the Kings have committed to building around him. If they get the top pick, you would think they would listen to offers.
Golden State has a 10.4 percent chance of the top pick, and their entire backcourt is overloaded with young players. They have Stephen Curry, the guy who finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting and a guy who stepped into the point guard role last season. They also have Monta Ellis who can run the point.
The bigger problem in the Bay Area is the team is for sale and nobody knows how long that will take, so consequently nobody knows who will be the coach come the fall and what style of basketball will be played. If Don Nelson is running the show, Wall in a three-guard offense can work. But then again, Nelson may sit him. The whole situation there is unpredictable.
If the Nets — the favorites at 25 percent after their horrid 12-win season – win the lottery tonight this talk is moot. They will not trade. But if the top pick and the rights to Wall do fall down the ladder, LeBron James may not be the only player move fans discuss for the next month.
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