May 15, 2010, 9:03 PM EDT
So there’s a million lines of context to the Conference Finals. And we can and will discuss the intricacies of each one-on-one matchup. But what are some of the more distinct, specific elements of each team’s lineups? We decided to take a look.
First, how did things shake out in the four regular season meetings between these two? We turned to PopcornMachine.net which tracks individual lineup performances for an overview. We found some interesting things. Here are a few talking point bullets from that data.
- Turns out Orlando’s depth hasn’t been as much of a factor in these games as you’d think. All in all, they’re a -49 in the four games this year. Their biggest run was a four man group in the third game of the year, a Magic win, that was mostly fueled by a monster run from Dwight Howard, the only starter on the floor. Everyone talks about Orlando’s depth, but so far when these two have met.
- A +19 run by the Magic starters in their final meeting this year in the third quarter is telling. The Magic simply ran over the Celtics’ starters, finishing on a 25-2 run. We see similar patterns across the other games, where the third quarter spelled doom.
- Matt Barnes is a significant element in this series, if the regular season can tell us anything. He was an overall +21, and many of the Celtics runs were without him. Barnes’ length and willingness to get the dirty work done brings the Magic another element that’s important for their success.
- Brian Sclabrine only played in three games, but he was a +3.
- I’m just trying to come up with a positive side of this for the Celtics’ bench. Rasheed Wallace was -10. So from that perspective, it does not look like the Celtics have a good counter for Rashard Lewis.
- Popcorn Machine uses a metric called help value which is rebounds plus assists plus blocks plus steals minus turnovers. It’s a very crude metric, but Marcin Gortat had a 22 help value in limited minutes.
- Kevin Garnett had a 48 help value which is a good sign for the Celtics. Even though his plus/minus contribution was poor, at least he was able to put a mark on the game. Combine that with his production through the first two rounds of the playoffs and you’ve got several good signs for the Celtics.
Rajon Rondo has been arguably the best player in the playoffs. Against the Magic, this year, his production has not been great. He’s been good, just not great. The better news is that he’s outperformed Jameer Nelson. The Celtics have to win that matchup to gain an advantage.
It’ll be interesting to see how Tony Allen performs in this series. He’s got a tough assignment, and versus the more physical, penetration-based man assignments he had against the Cavs which he handled impressively, his work his going to have to be more cerebral, working off the double to recover on the perimeter and close off shooters. The Celtics will need Allen to even further exceed his performance thus far in the playoffs.
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