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NBA Playoffs: Can Denver beat Utah on the road?

Apr 23, 2010, 7:58 PM EDT

Stealing a win on the road was a huge break for the Utah Jazz. Utah and Denver were a combined 66-16 at home this year, and went 40-42 on the road. Clearly, both of these teams are a lot more comfortable in their own buildings. Even without Kirilenko and Okur in the rotation, Utah has a lot of momentum going right now. 

That being said, the momentum will go right back to Denver if they can get a win tonight. Considering how many offensive weapons the Nuggets have, it’s never a good idea to count them out of a game. Let’s take a look at how each team can win Friday’s game in Utah and take a 2-1 advantage in the series:
Utah:
-Keep Deron Williams going:

Williams averaged 29.5 points and 12.5 assists on 51.7%/50.0%/80.6% shooting over the first two games. Utah is the more disciplined team at both ends of the floor; if Williams can continue to take over games on his own, they have a great chance.
-Contain Carmelo Anthony to some degree:
The Jazz were able to live with Carmelo scoring 32 points on 25 shots in game 2. They weren’t able to handle Carmelo scoring 42 points on 25 shots in game 1. As long as he plays like a normal All-Star instead of going absolutely insane, Utah should be able to score enough to hold on. 
-Be Aggressive offensively:

The Jazz didn’t turn into the Suns during game two, but they did seem to get into their offense much quicker and look for more quick-hitting baskets. The Nuggets are a below-average defensive team, and Utah should look to attack the rim against them rather than settling for mid-range jumpers out of their flex sets. 

-Get Something out of Wesley Matthews:

Korver coming off the bench takes some pressure off of Matthews, but going 3-12 from the floor over the first two games is not ideal for a starting shooting guard on a playoff team.
Denver:
-Use Your Big Men:

Like the Lakers, the Nuggets have a tremendous size advantage down low but don’t seem to be cognizant of it. Nene and Martin aren’t traditional post-up bigs, but they have the ability to punish Utah’s injury-riddled frontline if they get set up with chances to attack the rim. Martin and Nene both shot 7-10 from the field in game two; J.R. Smith, who went 3-10, was allowed to shoot just as much as either one of them. That should not be so. 
-Play Under Control:

Eight turnovers for the Nuggets in game one. 17 turnovers for the Nuggets in game two. Guess which game the Nuggets lost? Organized chaos only works if the offense knows what it’s doing. It’ll be hard to stay calm with the Utah crowd screaming their heads off, but it’s what the Nuggets have to do. 
-Attack Boozer and Milsap:

First of all, both Boozer and Millsap are iffy defenders. More importantly, if one of them gets into foul trouble, it means major minutes for Fesenko and Koufos. Those are not the guys Jerry Sloan wants to have to count on in the playoffs. 
-Get something out of Ty Lawson:

In game 1, Lawson had 11 points and 6 assists in 22 minutes, and the Nuggets were a +16 when he was on the floor. In game two, he had 3 points and 1 assist in 14 minutes. Lawson is a better backup point than anyone on the Jazz. The Nuggets should try to turn that advantage into some points. 
-Try to play defense:

I know Denver tries to outscore teams, but they should be capable of holding the Jazz to under 50% from the field or 40% from beyond the arc. Maybe they can start out by doing just one of those things in game three. Baby steps, you know?
Well, those are my keys. Tune it at 10:30 EST to watch either the Jazz or Nuggets win for completely different reasons than the ones listed above. 

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